Q: What do we really know about global warming?
A: Precious little. We do know that:
1. A 400-year mini ice age ended about 1850 and there's been a gradual warming trend since then.
2. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have steadily increased since record keeping started in 1958.
3. Polar and glacial ice volume is decreasing in some areas.
Q: Is human activity causing the warming trend?
A. Did human activity cause the mini ice age? I very much doubt it. By definition, when an ice age ends, be it mini or maxi, the atmosphere gets warmer. Human activity may be a contributing factor but there's no way to measure how much, if any.
Q: Has human activity contributed to the increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases?
A: Yes. Fossil fuel usage and deforestation are the main culprits.
Q: Are greenhouse gases contributing to the warming trend?
A. Probably, but again, no way to measure it. Poor air quality is potentially harmful in itself because nearly all living things need 'healthy' air to thrive. If air quality gets too bad, the living things will start dying off - and one of those things will be us.
Q: Will ocean levels rise due to melting ice, wiping out cities, ports and human habitat?
A: Maybe. Maybe not. Ice volume isn't decreasing everywhere and is actually increasing in some areas. Sea level increase projections are generated by computer modeling, which is based on few facts and lots of assumptions. To date, the accuracy of those projections has been so far off it's laughable. Garbage in, garbage out.
Environmental research and analysis products are often suspect because the findings are interpreted and spin-doctored to support the agenda of the funding source. Follow the money. To get really credible information, neither the researchers nor the analysts should know who's paying for it. Further, the analysis group should be totally independent of the research group.
The book, State of Fear, by Michael Crichton, inspired this post, and some of the information provided here is borrowed from the book. Mr C spent 3 years poring through environmental publications before he started the book and, although it's a novel, it's chock full of solid environmental information supported by reference footnotes; it also has an extensive bibliography. I found it to be quite an eye opener, especially in regard to the alarmist hype that the media shovels into our laps on slow news days.
So interesting, Mike! I agree that there is a lot of alarmist theorizing about, nowadays. Ron and I like to read M Crichton but we haven't picked this one up yet. Sounds good! Thanks for your report.
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